Linux on the Desktop

Linux on the Desktop - Week of 03/15/2007
When computer maker Dell responded to a high volume of requests for open source solutions on its products by saying, "We are listening," speculation was raised that the company had plans to release consumer-level desktop PCs with Linux. Unfortunately for those whose hoped were raised, it was a misunderstanding; the note referred to certifying the hardware for being ready to work with Novell SUSE Linux, it was not an announcement that computers would be loaded and sold with the operating system. That Dell was moving towards Linux on the desktop may have provided the impetus for the numerous articles which followed the news, but the idea itself is not completely new, either in the press or the industry. While much of the press which appeared around the time of Dell's note focused specifically on Dell, many articles commented on the viability of Linux desktops for the masses in general. Those in the latter category reported that Linux interest and adoption is growing; Dell's customers requested it, Hewlett Packard has noted this as well, and analysts point out the same. However, the move to Linux desktops is not likely one Dell or others are going to make soon. Jim Zemlin, executive director of the newly formed Linux Foundation (of which Dell is a member) says, "Linux has a long way to go before it has the same market demand as Windows."

While they may be requesting Linux, BusinessWeek points out that customers, "have also complained about poor support and technical problems." Linux, better support, and technical problems could add up to trouble, at least as far as the bottom line is concerned, for any supplier of a Linux desktop PC. Sources have noted the necessary expenses in supporting the move to Linux desktops; BusinessWeek points out that suppliers would need to, "sign expanded support contracts with Linux suppliers like Red Hat and Novell, or train its own customer service reps on open-source technologies." Paul DeGroot, an analyst at the consulting company Directions on Microsoft, says, "After the second or third call, they've lost money on the machine." In regards to technical issues, BusinessWeek states, "to make Linux for consumers fly, the vendor would need to invest in engineering to ensure the software works with popular graphics chips and wireless modems." Dell is doubtless aware of these factors, as are others; Hewlett Packard has made similar conceits.

PCWorld quotes Doug Small, HP's worldwide director of open source and Linux marketing, "the number of indicators we look at—the noise level, the interest in the products on the market, the interest in our forums—are all tending to heat up for Linux during the last six months or so." Though one executive at HP sees, "the Linux desktop nearing critical mass," the tipping point has yet to be reached. Among the reasons for holding off at this point, much of the current interest in desktop Linux is coming from enterprises, most of them outside the U.S. and North American markets. To meet these needs, "HP says it has recently signed deals -- on an ad hoc, custom basis -- to provide Linux PCs to large customers," says the Wall Street Journal; Dell provides similar offerings to some if its enterprise customers as well. There may be a growing base of small- to medium-sized businesses asking about desktop Linux, but it just does not warrant the investment. With both Dell and HP waiting, it seems likely that it may be a while before Linux finds its way to the desktop of everyman. However, that it will come seems equally as likely; Dell and HP are not the only ones noting the rise in interest among users.

In an article entitled, "Is a Linux desktop avalanche coming?" DesktopLinux.com says, "Slowly, ever so slowly, the Linux desktop has been picking up momentum. It keeps getting better and better, but Microsoft's monopoly has kept many PC users from realizing that there really is a viable alternative to Windows. However, that's about to change." The Wall Street Journal concurs, their article, "Linux Starts to Find Home on Desktops" states, "The much-hyped notion that Linux would be viable software to run desktop and notebook PCs seemed dead on arrival a few years ago. But the idea is showing some new vital signs." The Journal reports that, "market researcher IDC said licenses of both free and purchased versions of Linux software going into PCs world-wide rose 20.8 percent in 2006 over the previous year and forecast that licenses will increase 30 percent this year over last. That compares with 10.5 percent growth in 2004, according to IDC." Even so, Microsoft's Windows still runs on over 90 percent of PCs sold each year, which leads the Journal to conclude, "Almost no industry experts expect Linux to make much of a dent against Microsoft on the desktop and laptop any time soon." According to BusinessWeek many experts agree, "Even high-profile Linux proponents admit the operating system isn't ready for mass-market use."